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Monday, 30 August 1999 |
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Current Man-made Greenhouse Forcing to be 2.4 - 4.3 W/m2, Compared with 7.5 - 10 W/m2 Needed for Change of Seasons
For the first time in history, man has possibly permanently altered the energy balance in our general circulation (GC) system which includes two major elements, air and water through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Both air and water have excellent heat capacities. They are the main heat transfer elements around us which keep the changes in temperatures at any one locality to a minimum. Atmospheric and oceanic unrests are due to both the large quantity of heat, and the anthropogenic greenhouse effect of the greenhouse gases modern societies pour into the GC system.
The man-made alteration of energy balance in the GC system determines how chaotic our atmospheric and oceanic systems will be. At the present time, we measure this man-made Greenhouse Forcing to be at 2.4 - 4.3 W/m2. A change of 7.5 to 10 W/m2 will completely alter seasonal characteristics, e.g. from winter to spring. Thus, 2.4 - 4.3 W/m2 of Greenhouse Forcing is quite a significant alteration of energy balance.
The result of this Greenhouse Forcing is not a simple parallel shift in the climate of our well-known ecological zones, simple thermodynamics predicts an OSCILLATORY NATURE of the change in climate in any one ecological zone due to global warming. Global warming causes "extreme events" and bad weather in the near term. In the long term it may cause the earth to transition to another equilibrium state through many "oscillations in climatic patterns". The magnitudes of these oscillations could easily "exceed" the difference between the end points.
(Source: The Global Warming International Center USA)
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